Egg prices have fallen back to normal, and the headlines about record highs earlier this year already feel like a distant memory. I’ve started to see some folks on the internet declare victory in the fight against bird flu.
Unfortunately, the reality of the situation is not as triumphant as it seems. In fact, we’re on track to continue to make the same mistakes we’ve been making for the last three and a half years. Bird flu is now endemic in wild birds, meaning it persists year-round in wildlife populations, and it’s cyclical, meaning that it’s more extreme when migratory birds are in your area.
Every fall since the disease re-emerged in 2022, bird flu cases have spiked due to migratory patterns of wild birds. Each time this happens, the population of egg laying hens contracts, egg production decreases sharply, and prices skyrocket. In both 2025 and 2023 prices got high enough to make mainstream headlines. Innovate Animal Ag estimated that bird flu cost American egg consumers $14.5 billion in higher prices from June 2024 - June 2025.
Now, as we move into another fall season, bird flu cases are again starting to increase, suggesting we may be headed into another ramp-up in infections. If rising egg prices catch us off guard this winter, it’ll be quite an achievement—after all, we changed nothing and somehow expected a different result.
Just in the last few weeks, 2 million layers had to be depopulated in Washington, and 3 million had to be depopulated in Wisconsin. For context, the total size of the US layer flock is 300 million, so just those two infections alone are responsible for decreasing the US’s egg production capacity by 1-2%. When bird flu suddenly contracts the size of the national layer flock, that’s what causes sharp increases in the price of eggs.
That said, I can’t say for sure that egg prices will definitely spike again in the coming months. Egg producers have been proactive about repopulating the US layer flock, and in particular have been increasing the number of layer breeders (the parents of the hens that lay the eggs that we eat) that can quickly create more layers when needed. Also, in the last year companies have invested heavily into improving their biosecurity, which could help prevent infections. This all could make 2026 more like 2024, when egg prices increased a little bit, but not enough to make major headlines.
However, biosecurity will never be a full solution, especially since the CDC confirmed that HPAI is now capable of airborne transmission (something many poultry farmers suspected long before the official confirmation). Ultimately, if viral particles can drift in through air vents, there’s not a lot that farmers can do.
As I’ve argued before, the one and only long-term solution to bird flu is to allow farmers, particularly in the egg industry, to vaccinate against the disease. Other countries already do this (most recently, South Africa), and in fact we manufacture an effective bird flu vaccine right here in the USA that we currently export to other countries.
Unfortunately, farmers are only allowed to administer vaccines that USDA approves, and USDA has not yet approved a bird flu vaccine. The rationale is complicated, having to do with the international trade of animal products. The concern is that vaccines might suppress symptoms but not eliminate the virus entirely, so if you import from a country that vaccinates, you risk accidentally bringing in the virus into your country. Because the US is a major exporter of chicken meat, we don’t currently allow any poultry producers to vaccinate.
There are clear policy changes we can make to improve the situation. Bird flu primarily affects egg laying hens, and not chickens we use for meat. However, we mainly export chicken meat, not eggs. These two supply chains are completely distinct, and in theory we should be able to vaccinate egg laying hens without it affecting meat exports at all. In practice, trade agreements are complicated and it doesn’t yet work this way. But if the Trump administration is serious about keeping egg prices down, they should make this a priority in current ongoing negotiations with our trade partners.
When egg prices were in the news earlier this year, it coincided with a change in administration. Trump mostly blamed Biden’s failed bird flu mitigation policies for the problem. At that point, Trump’s criticism was justified, and I said so. Unfortunately, Trump’s policy has been largely the same as Biden’s, which will have predictably similar results.
To the administration’s credit, there have been some positive rumblings on potentially changing vaccination policy, but nothing yet concrete. And given the logistics of how a vaccine would be administered, it’s likely too late to affect where egg prices will go this winter.
If egg prices do start making headlines again, we should resist the urge to lump the story in with other concerns swirling around right now about cost of living. Bird flu is a unique situation that has to do with veterinary and trade policy, not macroeconomics. I can only hope that the Trump administration is able to make this distinction, and implement a rational, science-backed policy response. Allowing vaccination would be a rare policy win that benefits consumers, farmers, and animals alike.
